Watchlist June 25th

SPY - After ranching new highs we’re seeing some weakness in SPY. I have support and fib confluence at $290.70 and I’m currently holding $293 puts. Price is showing a little strength currently so I’ll be nimble with my current positions. That said, I do think $290.70 is in the cards for this week or perhaps next if bulls are very persistent.

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NFLX - Seeing an evening star forming on the daily and we’re well inside of a supply are where bulls have historically struggled. Provided the market does continue to weaken today I expect NFLX to follow. I’ll be watching for weakness after an initial rally for puts.

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Watchlist June 4th 2019

SPY - Nice overnight bounce, I swung a call which I may secure profits on near open. We have Powell speaking at 9:55 am so who knows how the market will react to that. The max upside I see is ~$279 area which has fib confluence, previous resistance and is near a respected down-trend line. Before we have a chance at that level we’ll have to pass this $276.71 resistance, which once again, is a fib level that agrees with previous support / resistance. $277.82 is the next fib level. On the bearish side we could test yesterdays lows or even break them depending on how the market reacts to the fed today.

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NFLX - Solid close below that key level of support I been mentioning in chat and here in my watchlist. We saw a decent bounce and rally at the end of the day yesterday. What I’d like to see is a failed attempt to break above that support line we lost (dashed magenta) to enter puts. The line is very close to where we are right now and NFLX’s opening range is generally greater than that regardless of direction. If we reject there I’ll consider this a strong bearish sign. I won’t be looking for calls on NFLX for a few days as I believe we have a big down day ahead of us after losing that key support.

If we break above that level, I’ll be watching for rejections near $343.88 or even $345.71 for puts.

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Watchlist May 30th 2019

SPY - We lost an important area of support and gapped down yesterday bouncing near $276.70 area. It appears we’re having trouble pushing back up into that gap in premarket. With this lack of conviction I’ll be cautious in my long positions. Though I do expect this support at $276.71 to hold for today. So, perhaps limited range. Looking at historic flow, I’m not seeing any major call volume for the $280 strike.

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BABA- A few of us hopped on board here yesterday after Jim found some strong options flow. Looking at the chart yesterday the ticker looked due for a technical bounce. We’re up a little here in premarket now and I’m watching $153.77 and $154.39 near term resistance levels for rejection to exit. I’d like to see the $152’s hold as support to remain confident in the trade.

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NFLX - Small gap up, but showing weakness pre-market. I’ll be waiting a bit after open to await a high probability scalp. What I’d like to see is either a strong pullback to yesterdays lows for a long call scalp, or a push to $353.93 for a put play. Either way, I’ll adjust as the chart unfolds.

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Watchlist May 21st 2019

SPY - nice steady grind overnight but we’ve still got a decent amount of overhead resistance at this level including the point of control in our volume profile and several moving averages on the daily. Keeping an eye on this symmetrical triangle here but I feel like we’d need some solid positive news to see a break to the upside.

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TSLA - I did manage to grab a few puts yesterday on Tesla this thing is a bad news magnet right now. Morgan Stanley just released a worst-case price target of $10 on TSLA so that doesn’t help. There’s nothing but air under $180.

TSLA Weekly chart

TSLA Weekly chart

TSLA 15m chart

TSLA 15m chart

NFLX - As always I’ll be watching NFLX for scalps this morning. I’d like to see a dip to at least $348.88 but ideally $345.69 to get long calls or a push to $356.34 to get long puts. Support and resistance levels are on the chart. Also note that we may have a down-trend line forming (magenta) so watch out for respect to that possible trend line. (Takes 3 tests to confirm a trend)

30 minute chart shows possible down-trend forming

30 minute chart shows possible down-trend forming

5min chart shows s/r detail

5min chart shows s/r detail

Looks like we’re up pretty good on low volume here, I’m going to be watching for a dip at open.

Watchlist May 17th 2019

SPY - Distinct rejection at the 61.8% retracement which also coincides with previous support at $289.23. Due to this rejection, put option flow and lower volume during this rally I am anticipating downside with a price target of $285.70 or the 23.6% extension area. Stay nimble, we’re always one tweet away from a boom or bust.

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NFLX - We’re up quite a bit over the past two days as and we have a similar rejection here that SPY had. Rejecting off a previous resistance area and the 50% retracement. I’ll be watching SPY and QQQ for direction as the market opens this morning but my expectation is that we’ll see downside today.

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DIS - Respecting the channel with a rejection off the top at $136.48. This is a key area for bulls to break in order to push higher. If we can’t break above this line we’ll continue channeling with a pullback at least to the $133 area, which is the point of control for this channel and near the Daily 9 ema.

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UBER - Good volume on the $46 strike for next week. I’ll be watching to see if this opens bullish tomorrow and consider joining the flow. Support at $42.82 needs to hold for me to remain interested in calls.

Premarket Update, UBER has given up this support area, now looking for $42.82 to hold as resistance.

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LYFT - Watching for respect to the supply line for potential downside.

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Watchlist May 15th 2019

/ES - It appears that the S&P 500 is obeying its channel today. I’ll be preparing for downside with puts and be very careful with calls. Looks like yesterday was just a corrective rally.

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NFLX - Chart wants to give up its major support, I’ll be considering a put swing today if this support breaks.

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Another look at that support line on the daily. If I enter a put swing My first PT will be the 200 sma.

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BABA - Hard rejection at previous demand line. I’m expecting a small rally followed by selling this morning.

BA - This is my top watch this morning for puts - pretty much out of the gate. I’ll wait a few minutes and short on weakness.

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UVXY, SQQQ, VIX all on watch for upside.

Watchlist May 14th 2019

SPY - Looking at a small relief rally today, most likely an inside day with minimal momentum. Watching resistance at $283.37 and $285.79 and support at 279.93 area. The 5/15 call volume outweighs puts, so perhaps we’ll close positive on the day. As always, I’m keeping a nimble bias.

NFLX - Nice bounce off multi-month support. I’m expecting this support to hold for now and for us to see a small rally and potentially close inside-day and green. I’m not expecting a lot of momentum here today.

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(NFLX continued…) Above, we can see the open interest for calls this week out-pace puts as well.

I’ll look for calls off dips to $345 - $347 area and I’m expecting strong resistance at $353.06 area and some resistance at $354.26.

SQ - Decent call volume on the $61 strike yesterday, watching this one for call scalps. Yesterday also had higher volume than normal which indicates demand and possible bounce.

RIOT / MARA- With BTC going nuts we look for sympathy plays in stocks, we see that both RIOT and MARA are responding with higher lows. These are worth watching while BTC is bullish.

Watchlist May 13th 2019

SPY - Another gap down day in the market as Trumps trade war heats up. Current price is 282.88 and dropping. I’m not expecting much upside today so I’ll be skeptical of any upside moves while scalping.

NFLX - Due to the bearishness of the overall market I’ll look for puts off of any rallies. I’m expecting resistance at $353.11 and $354.96. If we tank right out of the gate I’ll hold off and look to short off of any failed rallies towards VWAP.

Watchlist May 10th 2019

SPY Tariffs have been increased on Chinese goods. Our market has been continuously pricing in a trade deal since January so I personally anticipate more downside to come. However today president Trump is meeting with Chinese leadership and I think the market will hold off on major selling in hopes that a trade deal “gets done”. Stay nimble.

BABA - After many day's selling off I expect to see some upside today prior to Trumps call with Xi. I’ll watch for call opportunities on dips to $179s. After the call is anybody’s guess so stay nimble.

JD Nice, earnings beat this morning after a very bullish recovery day yesterday. I’ll be watching for continuation. I’d like to see $28.93 hold as support in order to remain bullish. Again, the tariff discussion can send us in either direction.

Z Zillow beat ER last night. We’re selling off this morning. I’m bullish above $38, and will evaluate puts if sell off continues.